In this issue… Introducing the Updated CORE™ Residential Models for Credit, Prepayment, and Loss Dick Kazarian, Managing Director, Borrower Analytics Group MIAC’s Borrower Analytics Group has completely revamped the CORE™ family of residential behavioral models. These models cover all three residential sectors: Agency, GNMA, and Non-Agency. The purpose of this report is to highlight six… Read more »
MIAC Publications
Introducing the Updated CORE™ Residential Models for Credit, Prepayment, and Loss
By Dick Kazarian, Managing Director, Borrower Analytics Group Introduction and Summary Over the past two years, MIAC’s Borrower Analytics Group has completely revamped the CORE™ Family of Residential Behavioral Models. These models cover all three residential sectors: Agency, GNMA, and Non-Agency and include the following components: Credit frequency (i.e., “roll rates”) Voluntary Prepayments Foreclosure/REO Timelines… Read more »
2020 Market Retrospective
By Brendan Teeley, Senior Vice President, Whole Loan Sales & Trading COVID-19 Prior to COVID-19, unemployment was at a 50-year low and inflation was also below the Fed’s target of 2.0%. A significant portion of the U.S. economy closed and remains closed due to COVID-19. Real GDP growth fell during the second quarter by a… Read more »
Residential MSR Market Update – November 2020
Month-over-Month From end-of-month October to end-of-month November, the MIAC Generic Servicing Assets (GSAs™) Conv_30 Index decreased by 4.30%, and the GNII_FHA_30 Index decreased by 6.90%. During the month of November, Conv_30 Index OAS’s tightened to close the month at 1,307.7 bps, for a decrease of 7 bps. The GNII_FHA_30 Index OAS’s widened to 1,638.3 bps… Read more »
Residential MSR Market Update – July 2020
Month-over-Month From end-of-month June to end-of-month July, the MIAC Generic Servicing Assets (GSAs™) Conv_30 Index decreased by 5.05%, and the GNII_FHA_30 Index decreased by 0.57%. During the month of July, Conv_30 Index OAS’s tightened to close the month at 1,258.3 bps, for a decrease of 36.4 bps. The GNII_FHA_30 Index OAS’s tightened to 1,571.8 bps,… Read more »
Research Insights: The Impact of the Agency’s New Adverse Market Fee
By Dick Kazarian, Managing Director, Borrower Analytics Group Mike Carnes, Managing Director, MSR Valuations Group Announcement and Industry Feedback Announced on August 12th and applied to all refinance mortgages with settlements dates on or after September 1, 2020, both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will begin charging a 0.5% adverse market fee on… Read more »
Research Insights (UPDATE): Modeling the Impact of Covid-19 on Whole Loans – Credit, Cash Flows and Valuation
By Dean C. Hurley, Managing Director, Structured Products and Whole Loan Valuation Group Dick Kazarian, Managing Director, Borrower Analytics Group MIAC Coronavirus Macrofactor Scenarios MIAC has revised our March-end macrofactor scenarios that show how we view the economy over the next three years because of the Coronavirus pandemic. We have sketched out possible… Read more »
Research Insights: Modeling the Impact of Covid-19 on Whole Loans – Credit, Cash Flows and Valuation
By Dean C. Hurley, Managing Director, Structured Products and Whole Loan Valuation Group Dick Kazarian, Managing Director, Borrower Analytics Group Markets Overview – The Environment All of the major financial markets have suffered major disruptions as a result of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (“Covid-19”). MIAC’s position is that only by properly modeling the… Read more »
Residential MSR Market Update – February 2020
Month-over-Month From end-of-month January to end-of-month February, the MIAC Generic Servicing Assets (GSAs™) Conv_30 Index decreased by 7.12%, and the GNII_FHA_30 Index decreased by 9.32%. In larger GSA cohorts, which are actively traded in the MSR market, the Conv30_3.5_2018 cohort decreased by 8.09%, and the GNII_FHA30_3.5_2018 cohort decreased by 9.15%. During the month of February,… Read more »
Residential MSR Market Update – January 2020
Month-over-Month From end-of-month December to end-of-month January, the MIAC Generic Servicing Assets (GSAs™) Conv_30 Index decreased by 5.22%, and the GNII_FHA_30 Index decreased by 7.70%. In larger GSA cohorts, which are actively traded in the MSR market, the Conv30_3.5_2018 cohort decreased by 5.63%, and the GNII_FHA30_3.5_2018 cohort decreased by 4.97%. During the month of January,… Read more »