Secondary Markets Commentary

TBA Trading Volume Trading volume was up 49% week over week. Conv 15yr volume was up 68%, Conv 30yr volume was up 53%, and GNMA 30yr volume was up 20%. Conv 30yr trades were 5.3 times the amount of GNMA 30yr, an increase over the 4.2 multiple from the prior week. The 3.5 coupon had… Read more »

TBA Trading Volume Trading volume was relatively flat week over week. The only real gain was in GNMA trades which were up 7.3% week over week. Conv 30yr trades were 5 times the amount of GNMA 30yr so the small increase in activity on the GNMA product wasn’t enough to make a significant impact overall…. Read more »

TBA Trading Volume Trading volume was up quite a bit this week. At the same time, borrowers took advantage of the lowest rates since late 2017. Conv 30yr trades led the way with a 37% increase week over week. With the move down in rates, we saw trade volume shift down in coupon. 83% of… Read more »

Curve flattening was in full effect last week as the 2-10 spread tightened to 12. The 10-Yr rallied 10 bps on Friday on the back poor European economic data finishing the week at 2.437. The 3-month/10-Yr inverted for the first time since 2007 as Existing Home Sales came in well above expectations at 11.8% MoM… Read more »

TBA Market Color Mixed data releases including weak construction, weak payroll growth, strong wage growth, a declining unemployment rate, and strong ISM Non-Manufacturing all had a part in last week’s market movement. 10-Yr Treasury yields rallied 12 bps finishing the week lower at 2.63 and the 2-10 spread finished flatter at 16. We are watching… Read more »

This past week was full of inconsistent data releases as 10-Yr yields bounced around before finishing better at 2.654. The Fed minutes showed that they are still committed to staying “patient” and conversations are starting to swirl around the 2% inflationary target set in 2012. Existing Home Sales fell for the third straight month in… Read more »

Government shutdown news went from optimistic to mixed as last week progressed. 10-Yr Treasury yields ended slightly higher and the curve flattened to 14. Trade talks between the U.S. and China appear to be making headway while EU relationships are starting to breakdown. CPI was originally the big-ticket event last week but a huge disappointment… Read more »

10-Yr Treasury yields ended the week lower at 2.634 as the curve flattened to 16. Rates finished the week lower as the Treasury market almost seems comfortable trading in the lower-yield range. European economic growth risks wreaked havoc on markets this past week as 2019 gross domestic product forecasts were cut. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Index… Read more »

Data and dovish sentiment moved markets this past week. New Home Sales and Non-Farm Payrolls made a strong showing while Consumer Confidence and Chicago PMI disappointed to the downside. Wednesday’s FOMC minutes stayed on the dovish path with the removal of key verbiage regarding the economic outlook and brought up the recent discussion around the… Read more »

After a week of insignificant data releases 10-Yr yields end close to unchanged (2.758) and the 2-10 spread tighter at 14 (curve flattened). Wednesday’s ECB statement took on a dovish tone as it highlighted that risks to growth have now moved to the downside. Those statements come one week before the first ever post FOMC… Read more »